Super Typhoon YUTU (ROSITA) Update No. 04
Posted 3 years ago
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines
Current Status and Outlook
Super Typhoon YUTU (ROSITA) has slightly weakened while maintaining its westerly track over the Philippine Sea during the past six hours. This howler is now endangering Northern & Central Luzon as the system’s forecast track continues to dig slightly to the south.
24-hr Outlook: On Monday morning, YUTU (ROSITA) will be downgraded to a Typhoon as it starts to veer to the West-Southwest @ 16 kph across the Philippine Sea, due to the strong surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan). Meanwhile, its outer rain bands will start to affect the Eastern Sections of Northern Luzon.
This dangerous typhoon is still far to directly affect any part of the Philippines within the next 24 hours (1 day). However, the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is now affecting the Northern and Eastern Luzon including Bicol Region and Northern Visayas, where moderate to strong winds of 30-55 kph along with passing scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be expected. The seas will be rough and dangerous to all sea vessels.
Where is YUTU (ROSITA)?
As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 28…0300 GMT. The eye was located along the south-central most part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.1°N 129.3°E), about 742 km east of Palanan, Isabela or 755 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan.
How strong is it?
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 225 kph near the center…Gustiness: 275 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs)
Westward @ 21 kph, towards the Northwestern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
Along Eastern Isabela, between 2:00-4:00 AM local time on Tuesday, Oct 30 – with High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?
Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Northern Luzon – beginning Monday afternoon (Oct 29).
Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> Cagayan Valley – beginning Monday evening (Oct 30).
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
:: Coastal Areas of Eastern & Northern Luzon – beginning Monday afternoon (Oct 29).
+Waves of 3 to 5 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed.
4-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
MONDAY MORNING: No longer a Super Typhoon as it veers to the WSW across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea, heading towards Eastern Isabela…about 406 km east of Palanan, Isabela [8AM Oct 29: 17.4°N 126.2°E @ 215kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH.
TUESDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Ifugao-Isabela Border. Rapidly weakens as it crosses Northern Luzon on a WSW to Westerly track…about 16 km west of Santiago City, Isabela [8AM Oct 30: 16.7°N 121.4°E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea while moving on a WNW track, and is about to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…some 260 km west-northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 31: 17.2°N 117.8°E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
THURSDAY MORNING: Already outside of PAR as it regains strength while over the South China Sea. Still moving WNW-ward…about 467 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM Nov 01: 18.3°N 115.1°E @ 145kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.
**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Other Storm Info
> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 520 mm [Light to Extreme]
> Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 605 km (Small)
> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 205 km from the center
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sunday October 28, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.1°N Lat 129.3°E Lon
Distance 1: 780 km E of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 2: 837 km ENE of Santiago City, Isabela
Distance 3: 797 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 944 km ENE of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 5: 963 km ENE of Metro Manila, PH
24 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.4°N 126.2°E (TY)
48 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 16.7°N 121.4°E (TY)
72 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 17.2°N 117.8°E (TY)
96 hr. Forecast Coordinates (Class): 18.3°N 115.1°E (TY)
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